The last few weeks have featured some interesting pieces by prominent reporters and analysts about why they severely underestimated Donald Trump’s chances at the Republican nomination. For my money, the most worthwhile so far is this one by “data journalist” Nate Silver at his website FiveThirtyEight. He and his team put Trump’s chances at 2% last August and raisedContinue reading “How I Got Trump Right; or, How Did I Make Such a Lucky Guess?”
Tag Archives: election 2016
Indiana Aftermath: Democratic Party Edition
Donald Trump has officially secured the Republican Party’s nomination now that John Kasich, last man standing by a day, has suspended his campaign. Weirdly, that means it’s the Democratic Party’s nomination that is still up in the air, with Bernie Sanders claiming he will contest the nomination if Hillary Clinton needs superdelegates to get herContinue reading “Indiana Aftermath: Democratic Party Edition”
The Trumptanic Sails at Dawn
https://youtu.be/6zR-uVcvAXY Fortunately, we have a rich cultural vocabulary we can use to discuss the 2016 Republican nomination contest. Back in January, I wondered if the Republican “establishment” – whatever that means anymore – would be able to chase down their Frankenstein’s monster. With Ted Cruz dropping out after getting clobbered in Indiana yesterday and Donald Trump’sContinue reading “The Trumptanic Sails at Dawn”
Super Tuesday III: What’s At Stake in the Mid-Atlantic
This coming Tuesday, April 26th, is the third time during this presidential nomination cycle that a bunch of states rich in delegates will vote on the same Tuesday. There will be one more “super” Tuesday on June 7th, when the big prizes of California and New Jersey (don’t snicker) are up for grabs for bothContinue reading “Super Tuesday III: What’s At Stake in the Mid-Atlantic”
The Federal Debt Doesn’t Matter
The Democratic Party’s chances at keeping the White House this November are looking good at the moment, so that means it’s time for deficit scolds to jump out of hiding and scare us all into thinking the federal debt is coming to eat our children. The first real “boo!” of the election season is last week’s Time cover storyContinue reading “The Federal Debt Doesn’t Matter”
Ted Cruz is Running for Theocrat-in-Chief
In 2007, Ted Cruz’s Texas solicitor general office argued that the use of sex toys was tantamount to “hiring a willing prostitute or engaging in consensual bigamy” in an effort to maintain the state’s ban of “marital aids.” Cruz and Texas lost the case but not before exposing conservative Christian views on sex for all the worldContinue reading “Ted Cruz is Running for Theocrat-in-Chief”
Wisconsin Primaries Recap
The results from yesterday’s primary elections in Wisconsin for both parties are clear, but their ramifications not so much. Ted Cruz won the Republican contest, coming just shy of a majority of the vote. The Wisconsin conservative movement mustered a nearly unified front against Donald Trump on behalf of Cruz, and it worked. New Yorkers vote inContinue reading “Wisconsin Primaries Recap”
This Supreme Court Case Was a Big Deal
The Supreme Court decided to not destroy public sector unions in a 4-4 decision yesterday. A split decision affirms the lower court’s ruling, which in this case was the Ninth Circuit’s decision to affirm a yet lower court’s ruling that compelling public sector workers to pay fees used to support their union’s negotiation and legal representation shops doesn’tContinue reading “This Supreme Court Case Was a Big Deal”
Election Numbers Crunching: Democratic Edition
Yesterday we saw that Donald Trump is the only Republican candidate left with a realistic chance of achieving a majority of delegates before the convention. As complicated as figuring that out was, the Democratic Party’s nomination contest is even more of a mess. Let’s deal with the most confusing aspect right at the top: superdelegates.Continue reading “Election Numbers Crunching: Democratic Edition”
Election Numbers Crunching: Republican Edition
The process through which we Americans nominate candidates for president is extraordinarily complicated, as 2016’s election is making excruciatingly clear. Comprehensive, readable results can be found at Real Clear Politics‘ “Election Central: 2016” page. I’ve put their delegate tables into an Excel spreadsheet in order to analyze the current state of both parties’ contests. Following are the results, which include Tuesday’sContinue reading “Election Numbers Crunching: Republican Edition”
Nonsense Consensus 